Solar PV OEMs and major players in renewables are spreading their networks and establishing new offices throughout Ontario, Ottawa not being an exception. New companies in the PV space are popping up like mushrooms after the rain.
In the recent days I have attended two shows to get a taste of the competitive landscape and talk to some of the folks on both ends of the spectrum. One show was the Go Green Ottawa, the second was the Spring Home show. Both were hosted at the Lansdowne Park. What I saw was an emergence of new, somewhat immature industry, where people are feeling their way through the darkness, not articulating the value proposition correctly, basically learning on the job. I haven’t seen this much energy in a long time, which is both exciting and somewhat disconcerting at the same time.
First, I applaud Ontario government for adopting the lessons learned internationally and implementing one of the most generous FIT (Feed-in Tariff) programs going in global PV field. In my mind it is no brainer to learn from something that works in other countries that implemented it, but for the Canadian government to take such a decisive action in times of crisis. For change, it shows a refreshing sign of leadership.
I’m not going to get into details of FIT and micro-FIT programs, you can find enough data about the programs on OPA web site http://fit.powerauthority.on.ca/
Over the next several months, I believe you will see materialization of a number of trends. Some will generate exciting success stories, some will have more negative tone. The up and downs are what makes watching this relatively new industry so fascinating.
The excitement needs to be balanced with responsibility to deliver a quality product. This may be a problem as I see people applying at high rate, but there is only a handful of qualified professionals to actually manage the projects, design and do execute the job.
Not too long ago there was only a handful of firms in the Ottawa’s PV space based more on the belief of doing the right thing rather than very sound economic models. I’m not knocking them down, quite the contrary. It takes guts to start a business you know is ahead of adaptation curve as your target market is very small. I hope all these folks that started early and have so much vested in the business will be successful, able to leverage their experience in the field.
You have heard many times saying: “the devil is in the details”. This is especially true for the PV projects as there is a great number of consideration, variables and distinct lack of experience I already mentioned.
You are crazy if you don’t do a correct assessment as the first thing. You need to consider your roof orientation, pitch, elevation, shading and factor in local insolation to start with. What is even more important is assessment of structurally sound your roof is and correctly estimate the time left before the roof needs to undergo a maintenance. Last thing you want is for the roof to collapse or get ripped apart by weight of the system, accumulated snow weight or wind load where your panels act as sails, thus stressing your roof structure. You also want to avoid removing your panels and fastening system to redo your shingle or membrane roofing systems.
I heard the first horror stories about installers using incorrect fastening systems. This goes back to lack of experience and presently practiced absence of adequate quality in construction. This paradigm needs to change immediately in Solar PV space. The efficiency of the system is fairly low begin with, so your system is going to be only as good as your design decisions, quality of the installation and finally the choice of equipment used.
Make sure the systems are designed and installed only by a qualified personnel. OPA lists the questions to ask your installers in the FIT program overview on their web site. Get informed first, cover your base, before signing up.
I can’t stress enough the importance of proper design and factoring quality into your project. Every detail counts and can’t be overlooked to get the expected performance as stated by installer and OEM. There will be a plenty of stories resulting in wasted money by systems improperly installed or installed in suboptimal conditions.
Technology is #3 on my list of priority after design and expert, quality project execution. The selection of technology is as important as design and installation, but all three pieces need to be present to maximize the program returns, meet the operator’s expectations and enjoy relative maintenance free operation of the PV system.
There are only a few vendors that current qualify for the Ontario content FIT requirement. These qualified OEM/vendors are the starting point. Then you examine total sum of efficiencies in all components – panels, inverters as stated by OEMs, length of conductors, connections leading to transmission loss before you even hit the renewable energy meter.
There is whole lot of technology out there, each claimed to be superior. Again, this is not a simple matter to settle.
What I would like to stress to you is that having a reputable and trustworthy installer that is not new in the space is going to be the key. Over time, most installers will gain experience, just don’t let it be on your account.
Do your homework, get references, talk to the clients that have the systems in operation for at least couple of years. Substandard PV system performance is one thing, leaking or damaged roof is entirely different story, but both will cost you big time...
So what panels to choose? Ontario qualified manufacturers currently specialize in mono and polycrystalline panels. I’m not aware of any thin film panels being offered just yet that qualify for the program. Thin film panels are cheaper to make and better at harvesting diffused or indirect light and may be a better choice for some installations where crystalline panel systems would suffer. There are of course some downsides too relating to projected longevity and the fact these have lower conversion efficiency ratings over crystalline products, etc.
Inverter space is a another story undergoing a bit of a revolution. There are many different types of inverters to start with, suitable for different applications dependent on the site and operator requirements. There are string inverters vs. microinverters. Some will allow per panel performance monitoring, eliminate panel mismatching or partial shading phenomena, where others won’t. There are many choices, many decisions.
What I’m trying to say is - if you are not an expert in the PV field, hire an expert!
One that is very familiar with pros and cons of each product, combination of products and can help you to reduce the risk of not achieving the desired performance. The PV contract length with OPA is 20 years, you want to maximize the system performance with minimum losses over the two decades, in order to meet your payback and revenue forecasts.
PV arena will be a very interesting place to watch. You consumer, developer, if you have south facing roof space without obstructions, get in, check out the FIT programs, see if these are right for you.
If yes, the sooner you do it, the better. OPA along with local hydro companies will eventually have to start rejecting applications as installations will lead to power grid destabilization. Some of the causes are related to intermittent nature of solar energy, state of transmission and distribution line capacity as well as total cost of the program. Achieving the adaptation goals, some EU countries have already terminated their very successful FIT programs.
The Ontario FIT programs will ultimately lead to inflow of investment, innovation in new, more efficient technology, redistribution of the grid, addressing grid challenges due to its age, creation of new jobs, but will also result just like every new industry in a consolidation and ultimately a survival of the fittest.
Exciting times...
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